Despite state support, at the end of 2022, the real estate market objectively sank. An analysis of statistical data showed that, depending on the region, the demand for real estate fell by 40-60%, and this is according to the most conservative estimates, Professor of the Russian University of Economics named after M. G.V. Plekhanova Natalya Prodanova.
– What will be the year 2023 for the real estate market will ultimately decide the demand, which is influenced by both external and internal factors. The impact of the external environment next year is seen mainly unfavorable against the backdrop of a budget deficit of 2.2%, which will certainly affect the cuts in social programs that kept the housing market afloat in the crisis years of 2020-2021, and the projected fall in the purchasing power of the population, associated with outpacing inflation growth compared to income. In addition, there is still a risk of an outflow of foreign companies that created jobs in Russia, – the specialist reports.
However, according to her, there is also the internal environment of the company, which is able to keep it afloat, including in times of crisis. The first is the quality of housing. At any time and in any crisis, there is a certain stratum of society that is distinguished by stability (civil servants, scientists, security forces), which has the opportunity to buy housing and the means to purchase it. But the demands of this stratum can be quite high, and the strategy of the current developers is different: to give the market as much cheap housing as possible in a short time.
But housing is far from cheap. Young people in Russia (students, novice professionals who are not included in the IT category) often cannot even afford a subsidized mortgage. At the same time, apartment prices are growing (according to some sources, by two-thirds since 2020), but wages are not. All this leads to a drop in demand for housing, especially in new buildings. A short-term surge of interest in secondary housing is possible, but even this is difficult to predict given the current situation,” Prodanova explained.
According to her, all this is fraught with stagnation, which in fact already exists and further stagflation, which can lead to a drop in demand, and consequently, housing prices. In addition, banks will also suffer, which instead of loans will receive mortgage unfinished housing.
The general trend to keep the market afloat is to reduce, including through freezing, low-budget projects when the number of square meters is converted into their quality and the market is reoriented to that part of the population that can survive the current crisis with minimal losses.
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