The US Department of Agriculture lowered its forecast for global rice production in 2022-2023 agricultural year due to worsening crop prospects in China and several other countries – leading producers of medium-grain rice. Global rice production is expected at 502.97 million tons, which is lower than the December forecast (503.27 million tons) and the results of previous years (in the 2021-2022 season – 514.95 million tons), according to a review of the agency., writes finmarket.ru
A significant decline in production in the 2022-2023 marketing year is expected in major producing and exporting countries of medium grain rice, including the US, Australia and the European Union. In the US, due to dry weather in California, production of medium and short grain rice could fall by 31% compared to the 2021-2022 agricultural year and be at a record low since the 1972-1973 season, the US Department of Agriculture predicts. Prices for paddy rice in the domestic market jumped by 50% from last season’s level. Export prices are also on the rise, with exports likely to be at their lowest since 1998-1999.
Historically, Japan and South Korea have been the largest export markets for US rice. They remain key markets under WTO requirements, but recent tenders have seen limited volumes due to declining interest from suppliers, given tighter supply and rising prices in the US. The forecast for rice production in the country was reduced to 5.09 million tons from 5.22 million tons, according to a December estimate, exports – to 2.15 million tons from 2.25 million tons. In the European Union in the 2022-2023 season. rice production is expected to fall by 25%, the figure may be the lowest since the 1984-1985 season. The main rice producers in the EU (80% of the volume) are Spain and Italy, and both countries are facing severe drought and lack of water for crops. Rice production in the EU is expected at 1.29 million tons compared to 1.72 million tons last season, exports will slightly decrease (to 400 thousand tons from 440 thousand tons). At the same time, rice imports to the EU may be a record, amounting to 2.7 million tons. Historically, long-grain rice has been the main supply, but in recent years, the share of medium-grain imports has been growing. China, which is the world’s largest producer of medium-grain rice, in the 2022-2023 agricultural year may reduce production to 145.95 million tons (previous estimate – 147 million tons) from 148.99 million tons last season. Despite some yield decline, prices are likely to remain competitive in the global market, given the impressive stocks.
Rice export forecast from China for the 2022-2023 season is 2.2 million tons (the estimate has not changed). The main importers of Chinese rice are the countries of Asia and Africa. The world’s largest rice exporter, India, can deliver 20.5 million tons to world markets this season, the forecast was raised from the December estimate of 20 million tons).
The US Department of Agriculture also raised the forecast for rice production in India by 1 million tons, to 125 million tons. Estimates of rice exports from Thailand and Vietnam remained unchanged (8.5 million tons and 7.4 million tons, respectively). The forecast for global rice exports in 2022-2023 agricultural year was raised to 54.38 million tons from 53.76 million tons.