Experts from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) predict a drop in Atlantic cod production worldwide in 2023 to a record low of 1 million tons. The reduction in the volume of fishing by the world’s leading fish producers may lead to Russia becoming the leader in the production of this type of fish, according to the All-Russian Association of Fisheries Enterprises, Entrepreneurs and Exporters (VARPE).
Thus, according to analysts, in 2023, cod production in Norway will decrease by 100 thousand tons and amount to only 278 thousand tons. A 10% reduction in cod production in Iceland is expected – up to 209 thousand tons.
The reduction in cod production in Russia is expected to be the same. In 2022, Russian fishermen caught 340 thousand tons of this type of fish. In 2023, the production level is expected to decrease to 306 thousand tons. Thus, by the end of 2023, the country may take the position of the largest producer of Atlantic cod in the world, commented German Zverev, President of the WARPE.
“However, one must take into account the fact that the cod market is an integral part of the global whitefish market. This segment includes both wild fish (cod, pollock, hake) and aquaculture (pangasius and tilapia). In addition to the physical volume of supply, the market position of each country is influenced by the methods of production of products from the corresponding fish species and channels for its promotion. Based on the combination of these factors, Norway still has the strongest market position,” German Zverev commented.
According to the head of the WARPE, Russia has good chances to strengthen its presence in the world market for white fish. “In general, supply fluctuations within the white fish segment simply increase market competition between substitute products for one food category – fish,” he explained.
Reducing the supply of cod on the world market will lead to an increase in prices for this type of fish. According to FAO forecasts, cod prices will rise throughout the year. This may lead to a reorientation of consumer demand for cheaper products from pollock, pangasius and tilapia. At the same time, salted cod importers will be willing to pay “any price” to ensure supplies to the market.
Full version on the website Analysts predict Russia to be the world leader in the production of Atlantic cod