By 2050, natural gas will come out on top in the structure of the global energy mix, according to the report of the Forum of Gas Exporting Countries (GECF) “Global Gas Outlook 2050”. But 27% of forecast resources are yet to be found.
The material was prepared by the Institute for the Development of Technologies in the Fuel and Energy Complex.
By 2050, fossil fuels will retain their leading role in the global energy mix, accounting for 63%. Natural gas will account for 26% of the balance, but 27% of projected production is yet to be found, according to the Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF) Global Gas Outlook 2050 report.
The members of the Gas Exporting Coutries Forum (GECF) are: Algeria, Bolivia, Egypt, Equatorial Guinea, Iran, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Russia, Trinidad and Tobago, UAE, Venezuela. The status of observers are: Angola, Azerbaijan, Iraq, Malaysia, Mozambique, Norway, Peru. GECF members jointly control more than 71% of the world’s proven natural gas reserves, 44% of its traded production, 53% of pipelines and 57% of LNG exports. The headquarters is located in Doha, Qatar.
The motley composition of participants without the overwhelming leadership of one of the members and the location of the headquarters in Doha allows the organization to be relatively independent in its assessments, in contrast to politically biased structures like the IEA. In the report, the GECF members presented their vision not only of the energy future of the world, but also a general picture of its development. Key Findings from the State of the World 2050 Report:
- global GDP will more than double, from $95 trillion today to $210 trillion in real terms;
- in 2050, the world population will increase by 1.8 billion people, and most of this growth will be in Africa and the Asia-Pacific region;
- demand for primary energy will grow by 22%, reaching 17.865 billion toe. e. compared to 14.585 billion toe in 2021;
- fossil fuels will retain their leading role, accounting for 63% of the global energy mix;
- the share of natural gas in the balance will grow from 23% today to 26%, and its supply will increase by 36% from 4025 billion cubic meters. m in 2021 to 5460 billion cubic meters. m in 2050;
- natural gas trade will grow by more than a third, primarily driven by LNG, which will surpass pipeline trade by 2026;
- the required investment in exploration and production by 2050 is $9.7 trillion (for reference: OPEC estimate is $12.1 trillion by 2045).
The forecast for growth in demand for primary energy by 2050 by 22% is close to the forecasts of other think tanks. Here is a graph from the report of the International Energy Forum.
The growth of the world population in the GECF report is assumed mainly due to Africa and the Asia-Pacific countries. In Africa, the population will almost double.
The population growth rate will fall across the planet, and in Europe and China in the early 30s it will go into the negative area.
In 2043, the GDP of non-OECD countries will equal the GDP of OECD countries, and over the period under review, the share of these countries in world GDP will increase from 39% to 53%
Natural gas will overtake coal in the balance by around 2025 and become the most used fuel by around 2043.
Demand for gas will be mainly supported by coal-free power generation, up 43%.
Demand for industrial gas will account for 17% of the increase in volumes. Demand for gas will increase as a raw material for the production of petrochemicals and fertilizers.
In transport, growth in gas consumption will be driven by emission reduction policies.
GECF analysts pay some attention to hydrogen. For example, they believe that blue hydrogen production will be an additional avenue for increasing gas use, given countries’ efforts to increase the use of low-carbon hydrogen in energy systems. According to IRTTEK, the prospects for hydrogen are exaggerated due to its permeability and explosiveness. The latest hydrogen ‘wonder’ news from the UK reads: ‘Households that will have hydrogen boilers installed (a pilot program in the UK) may be forced to make a permanently open 4×4 inch (10×10 cm) window in the wall to reduce the risk of explosion, as recommended in the government-backed safety report. The Arup design consultants report states that openings should be as close to ceiling level as possible and no more than 50cm below ceiling level.”
The recommendation is technically sound. There is no need to make obvious comments from potential users of hydrogen boilers.
The GECF forecast, in line with other forecasts, assumes an increase in electricity consumption: in 2050, the share of electricity in global final energy consumption will be 29% compared to 21% in 2021.
Global Electricity Generation Growth (TWh)
A breakdown of primary energy demand by region shows that the Asia-Pacific region will provide a 60% increase between 2021 and 2050, Africa will grow by 21%. In addition, the service sector will dominate global GDP growth, which will lead to a rapid decline in global energy intensity (GDP growth of 2 times with an increase in energy consumption by 22%).
Trends in Global Primary Energy Demand by Region (Mtoe)
Progress in renewable energy is central to changing the energy mix, the authors of the report write, as their share will increase from 3% in 2021 to 17% in 2050.
Global demand for primary energy in 2021 and 2050 (%)
According to IRTTEC, the growth forecast for RES is one of the report’s most dubious forecasts. Case in point: Danish company Orsted has warned that plans to build the world’s largest 2.8GW offshore wind farm, Hornsea 3, off the UK coast are “at risk” unless the government offers tax breaks to offset rising costs. And this is after a fourfold increase in the price of electricity for consumers!
According to the EIA forecast in the United States, after the removal of subsidies, the growth of even solar generation on ultra-cheap Chinese panels, which are produced on the cheapest electricity from coal, will decrease.
Levelized cost of electricity (subject to applicable tax subsidies) by region and total incremental capacity increase for selected generation technologies commissioned in 2024, 2027 and 2040
The forecast for coal is also doubtful. This is the cheapest type of fuel, for which, moreover, the entire infrastructure has already been created – production, transportation, storage, use. China, for example, last year approved the construction of another 106 GW of coal-fired power plants, four times more than a year earlier and the highest since 2015. Last year, 50 GW of coal-fired power plants were commissioned across the country, more than doubling from the previous year. India and South Africa have similarly refused to give up coal. But so far, according to all forecasts (politically biased according to the AGW theory), coal is the main contender for dropping out of the race for the future energy industry.
Trends in Global Primary Energy Demand by Fuel Type (Mtoe)
According to gas exporters, by 2050 by 59%, up to 2210 mmtoe. e., demand for bioenergy will increase, including traditional and modern biomass – modern solid bioenergy, biofuels and biogases. According to IRTTEK, the forecast may turn out to be prophetic. As the global economic crisis develops and consumers become impoverished, traditional biomass (firewood and dung) and modern biomass (pellets) will become an uncontested choice for many.
Demand for conventional biomass, which currently accounts for about 45% of total bioenergy demand, will remain broadly stable over the forecast period, albeit with regional fluctuations, the report says. Traditional biomass use will decline in China and India thanks to national programs to improve air quality by moving away from polluting fuels for cooking and heating. However, this will be offset by rising demand in sub-Saharan Africa amid population growth and limited progress towards universal access to sustainable food. In the base case, traditional forms of biomass remain high in the region, accounting for more than 60% of residential energy demand in 2050. Thus, furnace and boiler manufacturers in Africa may not have to worry about their business, and the plans of China and especially India to “improve air quality” may not materialize as planned.
China, India and Southeast Asia will become the main centers of growth in demand for natural gas. The authors of the report believe that Europe will be able to fulfill its REPowerEU program, which will lead to a reduction in gas consumption by 37% by replacing renewable energy.
We at IRTTEK doubt about the “replacement”, but the industry has fled from Europe at such a speed that the EU will not need a lot of gas. The ban on sales of cars with internal combustion engines from 2035, the excess profit tax on oil and gas, the price of emissions for 100 euros per ton of CO2 is enough to destroy heavy industry.
Trends in global natural gas demand by region (bcm)
The most interesting, in our opinion, the thesis of the report: about 74% of the annual production of natural gas by 2050 will be provided through authorized and new projects, as well as through the development of yet to be found resources (YTF). By 2050, YTF resources will account for about 27% of total production. This suggests that current proven reserves are not enough to meet growing demand and that exploration projects and new discoveries are critical!
World natural gas production by project status (bcm, %)
Significant reserves of YTF are estimated to be found in deep sea locations in remote areas that have so far remained untouched. Deep-sea gas reserves since the beginning of the year are estimated at about 80 tcm. By 2050, almost 47% of offshore production will come from deep water fields.
World natural gas production by project location (bcm, %)
The largest contribution to the growth of gas production will be made by African fields.
Region share in world natural gas production
Forecast of global natural gas production by region (bcm)
North America, the world’s largest gas producer, will maintain its position until the end of the forecast period. However, the region’s share will decrease from 28% in 2021 to 26% in 2050. The Middle East will become the world’s second largest natural gas producer, supplying almost 22% of the world’s natural gas by 2050, up from 17% now. Eurasia is today the second largest regional producer of natural gas, the source of almost a quarter of the world’s production. By 2050, its share will be reduced to 20%, and it will become the third largest producer.
Africa will be responsible for the second largest growth in production, holding over 11% of the world’s gas supply by 2050, up from just over 6% in 2021.
Almost 30% of world gas production in…
